Tuesday, September 06, 2005

“And a month is an eternity…”

Bren over at Poster Child has been doing some interesting calculations in relation to the latest voting trends. He is predicting a very tight race between the Liberal Left and the Right that would rob any side of a significant majority in parliament. I tend to agree with him.

Unless there is a significant collapse in the votes of either of the major parties to the other, then the election judging by current poll trends will be very tight. It could well be one of the tightest elections since 1957, when Labour won with a one seat majority, after the election of the Speaker.

There are still a number of minor parties which are sitting on the ‘threshold’ of parliamentary representation which may 'tip' the balance. The first is ACT. Aside, from their own questionable “push” poll in Epson, which gave Rodney Hide a one percentage point advantage over sitting MP Richard Worth (the poll also has a five percent margin of error), there have not been any overtures of help or support from National to ACT. This situation has been made harder for ACT with Labour’s decision to encourage their Epson voters to vote tactically and to support Worth, as well as National’s recent decision (salt-rubbing) to start chumming up to Peter Dunne.

The second is, of course Winston Peters. People are predicting a tight race in Tauranga between Peters and the popular National Party candidate. Since New Zealand First is hovering just above the threshold the party’s parliamentary survival may be under considerable doubt; therefore, they need to retain Tauranga.

However, a friend of mine noted that there has been very little New Zealand First election propaganda on Television or on Radio. Since New Zealand First received a significant amount from the Electoral Commission in terms of its broadcasting allocation, it would seem to suggest that they are holding back their advertising until the last week of the campaign.

Therefore, I am very reluctant to count New Zealand First out as Winston is a wily campaigner and he has evaded political death previously.

There is still two weeks to go in what is shaping up to be a photo-finish between the Liberals and the Tories. And, to place it into some perspective it may be apt at this point to remember a quote from the late British Prime Minister Harold Wilson, who observed that '...a week is a long time in politics.’


At Tuesday, September 06, 2005, Blogger span said...

I wonder if Winston is a bit low on funds. The tv ad I have seen is a cut down version of his opening address and I know that this is a good way to cut production costs. It seems odd to me that he would do that unless he needed to.

Also I see a lot of totally battered NZF signs as I drive around Auckers - they don't seem to be replaced, which makes me wonder if they have the spares. This would have been foreseeable, particularly in areas where there are bolshy immigrant groups liable to take to them with a baseball bat.


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